Developmental plasticity in deep time: a window to population ecological inference

Abstract Developmental plasticity, where traits change state in response to environmental cues, is well studied modern populations. It also suspected play a role macroevolutionary dynamics, but due lack of long-term records, the frequency plasticity-led evolution deep time remains unknown. Populations are dynamic entities, yet their representation fossil record static snapshot often isolated individuals. Here, we apply for first contemporary integral projection models (IPMs) data link individual development with expected population variation. IPMs describe effects growth discrete steps on dynamics. We parameterize using and planktonic foraminifer Trilobatus sacculifer . Foraminifera grow by adding chambers stages die at reproduction, making them excellent case studies IPMs. Our results predict that somatic rates have almost twice as much influence dynamics than survival more eight times suggesting selection would primarily target major determinant fitness. As numerous paleobiological systems rate increments single genetic individuals imaging technologies increasingly available, our open up possibility evidence-based inference developmental plasticity spanning Given centrality ecology thinking, model one approach help bridge eco-evolutionary scales while directing attention toward most relevant life-history measure.